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When Do We Start Worrying About the Mexican Budget?
Mexico has gradually run out of economic growth momentum, and now the fiscal deficit is steadily widening. At what point does this become a concern?
Our answer is "not yet" - but as Banxico continues to ease it's arguably the peso that will bear the first brunt of budget-related concerns rather than, say, local yields or dollar spreads.
We exited our MXN position a couple of months back and prefer to remain on the sidelines with regard to Mexican assets today, given the rampant uncertainties surrounding US-Mexican trade relations ... and, looking forward, the budget.
When Do We Start Worrying About the Mexican Budget? (PDF)
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