Milei has now "essentially" done the job. The government is holding the line on the budget, monetary policy is tight, credit growth has slowed dramatically, interest rates are reasonable, the external position is in balance and the peso is stable in both formal and informal markets. Inflation has yet to subside, but on current policies it's only a matter of time.

Now on to the next problem ... which is that stabilization only works on a sustained basis if Argentina doesn't grow. With a weak and flattish export economy and a huge external debt overhang Argentina is constrained to "live within its means" on the external front. This is fine as long as domestic demand is stagnant, like it is today, but the moment the country wants to spend and import the question of peso pressures and dollar debt spreads will inevitably resurface.