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Don't Get Hopes Up For a Consumption Boom (Webcast)
Consumption has moved onto Beijing's agenda. With soaring external surpluses, continued depression in the property sector and a huge glut of household savings hitting banks, the need to boost domestic consumption has increasingly been showing up in policy communication over the past few quarters.
But there's no "magic bullet" that solves the problem. The two main structural proposals that are always rolled out in response - (i) fixing the social safety net and (ii) ending financial repression - are non-starters, being either ineffective or simply unachievable. And China is still years away from the one thing that clearly could reboost household spending, i.e., a fundamental cleanup and restructuring of the real estate sector.
And meanwhile China faces three big growing macro headwinds, in the form of slowing incomes, rising pension funding stress and collapsed birthrates.
This leaves the government with hodge-podge of more minor measures including interest rates, tax and subsidy adjustments, cash transfers and equity market support ... but so far relatively little action.
Don't Get Hopes Up For a Consumption Boom (PDF)
How To Think About Emerging Markets (2026 Edition)
An opinionated guide to emerging markets
What is an Emerging Market? (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 1)What's Wrong With EM? (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 2)
Who Makes It, Who Doesn't (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 3)
Is Globalization Over? (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 4)
Four EM Growth Fallacies (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 5)
An Austrian Primer: Savings, Debt and Default (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 6)
How To Think About China (2025 Edition)
... and an opinionated guide to China
Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 1)A State Economy or a Market Economy? (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 2)
The End of the Miracle (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 3)
Property Boom and Property Bust (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 4)
Debt, Banks and the Budget (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 5)
The Future of the Renminbi and the Closing of China (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 6)
The Aging Crisis (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 7)
How to Follow Macro Policy (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 8)
Why Haven't I Made Money? (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 9)
