Here is the latest iteration of our semi-annual emerging market macro risk framework, using mid-2026 data. By our comparative metrics, the highest-risk EM economies today on a fundamental basis remain Venezuela and Ukraine, followed at a distance by Argentina, Romania and Egypt. The lowest-risk, as before, are UAE, Singapore, Taiwan and the Baltic states.

Our risk index can't capture everything, and its usefulness diminishes as you move towards the EM periphery and frontier - but among major markets we find its predictive power in terms of future growth prospects is useful, as the track record over the past few decades has shown. So it's very much worth having a look. .